Refining margins are projected to remain strong in 2026 due to a significant slowdown in global downstream capacity additions. RBN Energy forecasts only 890,000 b/d of new refining capacity entering service, while 255,000 b/d of existing capacity will be taken offline, including Valero's 140,000 b/d plant in California. The gap between production and consumption is expected to widen, leading to a tight products market.
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